Will 2021 acceptance rates go up or down at top MBA programs?

This is the question I am being asked continuously from fall 2020 admitted and new/potential clients.  For those already admitted for fall 2020, the issue is whether to defer and/or just try again for 2021. For new/potential clients, they are just trying to figure out how difficult admissions for 2021 is likely to be as this directly effects school selection, expectations about results, and the whether to wait a year or more.  My answer is ambiguous and informed  by the greater economic and political impact of the Coronavirus which  I have previously discussed economic and visa impacts related to Coronavirus and provided advice to applicants here, here, and here. Below are further thoughts related to an admissions-level view of the situation.

Increased level of new client inquiries: Judging by the number of initial consultations I have been doing since February, my answer would be that the acceptance rates for 2021 are likely to go down because the number of applicants seems to be increasing. Hence 2021 admission will be more difficult  This was certainly the prevailing view I heard during the Association of International Admissions Consultants (AIGAC) Virtual Conference (#aigac2020) on May 18th and 19th. It was clear enough that other consultants worldwide are seeing no negative impact to their business due to the ongoing crisis but the vast majority  are seeing an increase.  This might simply be due to applicants having more on their hands and starting the process earlier and hence, we might see a decreased volume later this year.

MBA Admissions Officers: Without disclosing the specifics (as that would violate disclosure rules), what I heard at #aigac2020 was MBA admissions officers from Top US schools expressed optimism about application volume for 2021 entrance based on the fact that their app volume was up because of an extended R3/R4, because of deferred 2020 admits, and because of the typical pattern of applicants increasing during a recession. Let’s consider each of these factors.

Late application now for 2020 could be a positive signal for 2021 application volume or it could be false signal: Extended deadline enables R1 applicants to apply in extended deadline so they need not apply for 2021 if admitted for 2020. Assuming enough admits, it could result in a drop in the number of applicants for 2021. It could also signal that many applicants are undeterred by the crisis and that we should anticipate an increased difficulty of admission.  It could also signal that some applicants focused more on the degree than the experience see the opportunity to apply right now and are taking advantage of the situation.  Whatever the case, we can’t assume that it tells us what applicant behavior will actually be like for MBA application season 2020-2021.

There is no question that many admits are deferring/withdrawing from 2020 because of the possibility of programs being online and/or visa issues and concerns about internships and job recruiting. It is easy to imagine a net increase in application volume produced by such previously admitted applicants applying again. And, unless schools increase the number of seats, it means that deferred applicants will be taking up seats that would otherwise not be available.   For me, this is one factor that more or less unambiguously points towards a net increase for the difficulty of admission, but externalities (see links to my prior posts above) could undermine this factor. 

//By the way, for anyone considering deferment for fall 2020, US B-schools have a work around to make sure that any international student regardless of when they can get to the US can get a paid internship. Schools have now or are making internships part of the curriculum which means that as long as someone gets to the US by summer 2021 even if they had been attending online for the first academic year, they could still intern in the US assuming the student can get to the US by summer 2021. Check with the school(s) you have been admitted to regarding this issue.//

GMAT and GRE testing:  While a temporary issue if test centers open relatively soon, given the unpopularity of the online test, it is imaginable that extended center delays could have a negative impact on the number of applicants though this would be irrational. I say irrational because  admissions officers are aware of the issues regarding the online test and would take it into account. However I can easily see applicants ignoring that and not taking the online test. Certainly such delays could easily reduce the number of R1 applicants but subsequently have no significant net impact on total application volume if the online test improves and/or if test centers open (and stay open) worldwide soon.   However if countries go into a second round of lockdown due to the pandemic getting worse again in the fall, the lack of test taking availability could have a net negative impact on the number of applicants. I know I will be telling my clients to take the online test if that is the only option and I am sure that schools will stating that too so I don’t think this will be a huge factor one way or the other.  Another reason why I don’t think this will be a huge factor is because GMAC also has the online Executive Assessment test.  EA is used by EMBA programs and since the 2019-2020 admissions cycle by Columbia Business School and NYU Stern for the MBA, could become a reasonable substitute if other MBA programs start to accept it. Since the EA takes 90 minutes instead of 3 hours and 7 minutes, it would certainly be easier for GMAC to proctor since they could administrate 2 EA sessions in the time it takes for 1 GMAT session. This would give applicants at least the option for taking more online tests. I think GMAC is pragmatic enough to make sure that they provide test takers with sufficient options.

Recessions increase the number of applicants to MBA programs but what about depressions?  At #aigac2020 and elsewhere the common sense assumption based on past MBA admissions cycles would be that a recession in the US causes a net increase in the number of applicants because a weak job market makes graduate school look more attractive. And, if we only have a recession, I think it is reasonable to assume a net increase in applicants for fall 2021 admission. But what about a US and/or global depression? We don’t know because we have not had one since 1929. Just like we have not had a global pandemic since 1918, we

would be dealing in unknown territory and cannot easily assume how things will work based on past precedent. That said, I can easily imagine a situation were the number of applicants plummets because the risks of leaving a paying job, reduced level of financial support from families, and a massively increased level of fear/panic/stress result in a significant decrease in the number of applicants. Such a deeply awful scenario is not unreasonable to consider given the potential for Covid-19 to become even worse in fall 2020 (See here regarding that scenario). In such a s scenario,  2021 admissions could become significantly less difficult if the number of applications drops significantly enough.

Finally, as I have discussed in earlier posts, in such uncertain times my advice for applicants to be flexible and pragmatic by having multiple winning options. The situation right now is just simply too unpredictable to do otherwise.